Modelling for prediction of global deforestation based on the growth of human population   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Krishna Pahari  Shunji Murai 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》1999,54(5-6)

Deforestation due to ever-increasing activities of the growing human population has been an issue of major concern for the global environment. It has been especially serious in the last several decades in the developing countries. A population-deforestation model has been developed by the authors to relate the population density with the cumulative forest loss, which is defined and computed as the total forest loss until 1990 since prior to human civilisation. NOAA-AVHRR-based land cover map and the FAO forest statistics have been used for 1990 land cover. A simulated land cover map, based on climatic data, is used for computing the natural land cover before the human impacts. With the 1990 land cover map as base and using the projected population growth, predictions are then made for deforestation until 2025 and 2050 in both spatial and statistical forms.  相似文献   

CMIP5模式对中国地区气温模拟能力评估与预估   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

张艳武  张莉  徐影 《气候变化研究进展》2016,12(1):10-19

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中29个气候模式的气温模拟结果,评估了各模式对中国地区年平均气温的模拟能力,对未来不同典型浓度路径（RCPs）下中国地区气温的可能变化给出了预估。结果表明：各模式能较好地模拟过去100多年中国地区增温趋势和年平均气温的空间分布,从模式间标准差来看,各模式对中国中部、南部气温模拟具有较高的一致性。利用相对均方根误差分析了各模式的模拟能力,对于多时间尺度（月、年）气温的气候平均态,有7个模式表现良好,高于中等水平,5个模式的模拟能力低于中等水平,模式集合平均值的模拟效果优于大多数单个模式。根据29个模式的评估结果,使用模拟性能相对较好的模式分析了未来不同排放情景下中国地区气温变化,21世纪前期,不同排放情景之间的预估结果差别较小,21世纪中期各情景之间的差别逐渐增大,到21世纪后期,3种排放情景的升温差别明显增大。  相似文献   

近地空间环境的GNSS无线电掩星探测技术   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

乐新安  郭英华  曾桢  万卫星 《地球物理学报》2016,59(4):1161-1188

从GPS/MET计划开始,基于GNSS的无线电掩星技术已成为一种强大的近地空间环境探测手段.截至到目前,已经有20多颗发射的低轨道卫星带GPS掩星接收机,其中COSMIC是首个专门用于掩星探测的卫星星座.这些掩星数据被广泛应用于气象预报、气候与全球变化研究、及空间天气监测和电离层研究.由于COSMIC的成功,相关合作单位目前正积极推动COSMIC-2计划,该计划将总共有12颗卫星,于2016年与2019年各发射6颗.COSMIC-2将携带一个高级的GNSS掩星接收机,它将接受GPS与GLONASS信号,并具备接受其他可获得信号源的能力(如中国北斗定位信号),其每日观测的掩星数量将是COSMIC的4~6倍.同时COSMIC-2还将携带两个空间天气载荷,加强空间天气的监测能力.本文以COSMIC与COSMIC-2计划为主线,对掩星的发展历史、技术要点进行了简单介绍,并简要综述了COSMIC取得的部分科学成果,同时对未来包括技术发展和众多的掩星观测进行了展望.  相似文献   

Development of deformable connection for earthquake‐resistant buildings to reduce floor accelerations and force responses          下载免费PDF全文

Georgios Tsampras  Richard Sause  Dichuan Zhang  Robert B. Fleischman  Jose I. Restrepo  David Mar  Joseph Maffei 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(9):1473-1494

This paper presents the development of a deformable connection that is used to connect each floor system of the flexible gravity load resisting system (GLRS) with the stiff lateral force resisting system (LFRS) of an earthquake‐resistant building. It is shown that the deformable connection acts as a seismic response modification device, which limits the lateral forces transferred from each floor to the LFRS and allows relative motion between the GLRS and LFRS. In addition, the floor accelerations and the LFRS story shears related to the higher‐mode responses are reduced. The dispersion of peak responses is also significantly reduced. Numerical simulations of the earthquake response of a 12‐story reinforced concrete shear wall example building with deformable connections are used to define an approximate feasible design space for the deformable connection. The responses of the example building model with deformable connections and the example building model with rigid‐elastic connections are compared. Two configurations of the deformable connection are studied. In one configuration, a buckling restrained brace is used as the limited‐strength load‐carrying hysteretic component of the deformable connection, and in the other configuration, a friction device is used. Low damping laminated rubber bearings are used in both configurations to ensure the out‐of‐plane stability of the LFRS and to provide post‐elastic stiffness to the deformable connection. Important experimental results from full‐scale tests of the deformable connections are presented and used to calibrate numerical models of the connections. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC building subjected to successive earthquakes          下载免费PDF全文

Jiuk Shin  JunHee Kim  Kihak Lee 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(11):1603-1619

Building structures damaged by a seismic event may be exposed to the risk of aftershocks or another event within a certain period. In this paper, the seismic assessment of damaged piloti‐type RC buildings was carried out to evaluate probabilistic retrofitting effects under successive earthquakes. First, a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of retrofitting was proposed, and then the proposed methodology was demonstrated with a structure retrofitted with buckling‐restrained braces (BRBs). For consideration of realistic successive earthquakes, past records measured at the same station were combined. Within the framework, a series of nonlinear time history analyses were performed for an as‐is model subjected to single earthquake, a damaged model subjected to successive earthquakes, and a damaged model retrofitted with BRBs subjected to successive earthquakes. In addition, fragility analysis was systematically applied in the framework for evaluation of effectiveness of the retrofitting strategy. The proposed framework was capable of quantifying the influence of successive earthquakes and evaluating the effectiveness of BRB retrofitting by considering the severity of the first earthquake damage and the hysteresis behavior of the retrofit element. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

壳体稳定性问题的研究进展     

安镇文  许绍燮  乔森  柴金梅 《地震地磁观测与研究》2014,(1):1-9

为探索大地震成因的物理机理,根据板壳理论的研究结果,综述多年来柔韧壳体非线性大挠度变形研究中与地震成因相关的壳体结构变形问题的研究进展、壳体结构变形过程中的稳定性问题。同时,介绍壳体曲率变化对其变形过程中稳定性的影响,期望能为探索大地震成因机理的研究提供某些有用的物理依据与理论基础。  相似文献   

Improved method to derive equivalent current systems from global MHD simulations     

ZHANG JiaoJiao  WANG Chi  TANG BinBin 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(1):167-173

Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation.  相似文献   

Comparative analysis of the characteristics of global seismic wave propagation excited by the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake using numerical simulation     

YAN ZhenZhen  ZHANG Huai  FAN XiangTao  DU XiaoPing 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(7):1626-1636

Giant earthquakes generate rich signals that can be used to explore the characteristics of the hierarchical structure of the Earth’s interior associated with the eigenfrequencies of the Earth.We employ the spectral element method,incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology,to investigate the characteristics of global seismic wave propagation excited by the2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake.The transversely isotropic PREM model is employed as a prototype of our numerical global Earth model.Topographic data and the effect of the oceans are taken into consideration.Wave propagation processes are simulated by solving three-dimensional elastic wave governing equations with the seismic moment tensor obtained from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog.Three-dimensional visualization of our computing results displays the nature of the global seismic wave propagation.Comparative analysis of our calculations with observations obtained from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology demonstrates the reliability and feasibility of our numerical results.We compare synthetic seismograms with incorporated and unincorporated ocean models.First results show that the oceans have obvious effects on the characteristics of seismic wave propagation.The peak displacement and peak velocity of P waves become relatively small under the effect of the ocean.However,the effect of the ocean on S-waves is complex.The displacement and velocity of S waves decrease rapidly over time using an unincorporated ocean model.Therefore,the effects of the ocean should be incorporated when undertaking quantitative earthquake hazard assessments on coastal areas.In addition,we undertake comparative analysis on the characteristics of the Earth’s oscillation excited by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman,2008 Wenchuan,and 2011Tohoku earthquakes that incorporate the effect of the Earth’s gravitational potential.A comparison of the amplitude spectra of the numerical records indicates that energy released by the three big earthquakes is different.Our comparative analysis realizes that the computing results can accurately reproduce some eigenfrequencies of the Earth,such as toroidal modes 0T2 to 0T13and spheroidal modes 0S7 to 0S31.These results demonstrate that numerical simulations can be successfully used to investigate the Earth’s oscillations.We propose that numerical simulations can be used as one of the major tools to further reveal how the Earth’s lateral heterogeneities affect the Earth’s oscillations.  相似文献   

深部咸水层CO2地质封存数值模拟参数的全局敏感性分析:以苏北盆地盐城组为例     

郑菲  施小清  吴吉春  赵良  陈旸 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2014,44(1):310

基于对苏北盆地盐城组下段砂岩储层概化建立二维径向剖面模型,运用TOUGH2/ECO2N程序模拟深部咸水层中CO₂迁移分布过程。采用定性(Morris法)和定量(Sobol和EFAST法)全局敏感性分析方法,以储层中注入井处的压力、气相CO₂总量及CO₂气相羽扩散距离作为模型响应变量,对储层的水平渗透率、孔隙度、残余液体饱和度、孔隙分布指数、压缩系数、进气压力的倒数和盐度7个参数进行全局敏感性分析,讨论了咸水层的水文地质参数、盐度及其他模型参数对CO₂封存运移泄漏过程的影响。Morris和Sobol法的敏感性分析结果都表明,对于不同的响应变量,参数的敏感性排序不同：以注入井处的压力为响应变量时,孔隙度的敏感性最高;以气相CO₂总量和CO₂羽扩散距离为响应变量时,水平渗透率的敏感性最高。EFAST 1阶及总敏感度分析结果与Sobol分析结果基本一致,但EFAST法相对Sobol法计算更高效稳健,需要的样本数较少。  相似文献   

全球大洋季节内尺度上海-气相互作用特征分析     

席婧嫄  周磊  姜良红 《海洋学研究》2014,32(3):1-8

判定局地海-气相互作用的特征对海-气耦合模式中应用哪种形式的“强迫模拟”具有重要指导作用。本文根据海表热通量异常与海表温度异常及海表温度变率之间的相关关系,对全球大洋季节内尺度上的海-气相互作用特征进行了综合分析。结果表明:(1)南、北半球亚热带地区海-气相互作用的特征主要表现为大气对海洋的强迫,且在夏季(北半球为6—8月,南半球为12—翌年2月)强迫作用的范围最大,冬季强迫作用的范围最小;(2)赤道中、东太平洋及赤道大西洋地区海-气相互作用的特征全年表现为海洋对大气的强迫,印度洋索马里沿岸、阿拉伯海以及孟加拉湾地区仅在6—8月表现出海洋强迫大气的现象,而孟加拉湾则在9—11月表现为大气强迫海洋;(3)45°N(S)以上的高纬度地区海表温度的异常和变率无法用局地热通量的交换来解释,这是因为该区域海表温度的变化主要由平流等海洋内部动力过程决定,因此海-气之间在季节内尺度上的相互作用不明显。在某些海区,季节内尺度上的海-气相互作用关系与季节以上时间尺度的这种关系可能会有明显不同。  相似文献